Abstract
The EU has demonstrated unprecedented unity on its stance towards imposing sanctions on Russia, despite divergent levels of support among and within member states. Opposition to the measures appears to be influenced by a panoply of historical, cultural, geographical, and economic and security drivers. The economic costs to the EU of its sanctions on Russia appear to be manageable, in part due to EU subsidies, trade redirection and increased purchasing power. Loss of trade with Russia since the imposition of sanctions is most marked in the countries in Russia’s immediate vicinity, which remain among the most supportive of ongoing measures.
Factors such as UK’s departure from the EU, the US presidential election of Donald Trump, and 2017 leadership elections around Europe, most notably in France and Germany, have introduced uncertainty over the future of the package of measures aimed at Russia. The future trajectory of cumulative international sanctions on Russia could have far-reaching implications for Russia-West relations, the EU’s position in the world, and its ability to continue using such measures as a favoured policy instrument in tackling a range of security and foreign policy challenges in the years to come.